Wednesday, April 11, 2007


Palladium In "Technical Breakout"

Bloomberg reports on currencies. "Canada's dollar reached a four- month high as technical analysts said the currency's recent advances suggest further gains and the government said housing starts rose in March. The currency's appreciation accelerated after it moved past its average of the past 200 days, traders said. For some investors who use historical patterns to forecast the currency's future, that break was bullish."

"The Canadian economy is performing much better than people had thought,' said Jonathan Gencher, vice president of foreign exchange sales at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. 'There is a lot of interest to buy the Canadian dollar.'"

"The Canadian currency rose 0.7 percent to 87.74 U.S. cents at 4:46 p.m. in Toronto. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.1398, the strongest for Canada's dollar since Dec. 5. The Canadian dollar's 200-day average is about C$1.1450 today."

"The move below C$1.1447 meant '`our bullish forecast for the U.S. dollar is at risk,' said George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. RBC, Canada's largest bank by assets, forecast the Canadian dollar weakening to C$1.2100 this year."

"The currency got a boost earlier today after a report showed housing starts rose to 210,900 on an annual basis in March from 196,000 in February. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released the data today."

From MarketWatch. "Gold futures closed marginally higher Wednesday, as the dollar recouped some of its prior-session losses and crude-oil futures traded flat on conflicting supply data. Gold for June delivery ended up 20 cents at $681.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"'Bullion closed Wednesday's session on a markedly less enthusiastic note,' said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. 'The gold rally shows some signs of fatigue and now has to contend with a rebounding US dollar and a renewed anti-inflation stance from the IMF as well as the Fed.'"

"Other metals prices were mixed. May silver fell 4 cents to $13.89 an ounce. July platinum closed up $7.70 at $1,281.30 an ounce, June palladium rose $6.10 at $369.55 an ounce."

"U.S. Federal Reserve members were very uncertain about the economic outlook and changed their policy statement to gain more flexibility to respond to the incoming data, the minutes said. 'The FOMC agreed that further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation, but in light of increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the FOMC also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming,' the FOMC minutes said."

"'Instead the statement should indicate that future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information,' the minutes said."

"Elsewhere on the commodity markets, reformulated gasoline futures rallied Wednesday to an eight-month high, as a greater-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks helped support the belief that demand will remain strong through the summer driving season. Crude oil for May delivery was up 14 cents at $62.03 a barrel on NYMEX, but had been up as much as 67 cents at its intraday high of $62.56."

From Reuters. "Commission-house and technical buying sent U.S. palladium futures to a ten-month high on Wednesday, while gold contracts finished a touch higher after breaking above trading ranges a day earlier."

"Most-active palladium futures for June delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up $6.10 at $369.55 an ounce."

"Ralph D'Esposito of RJ Futures cited a technical breakout on the charts, along with commission house short covering, the buying back of futures or options previously sold to close out short positions."

"'We are hitting commission-house (buy) stops and speculative buying in palladium,' D'Esposito said, adding he also saw some good trade and commercial selling at the same time."

"The June palladium contract has risen more than 10 percent after setting a low of $336.20 on March 5."

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