Saturday, December 09, 2006


US Dollar Takes A "Beating" In Europe

The Washington Post reports on the currency changes. "It didn't take long for sticker shock to hit Allan and Christine Britton. Twenty minutes after arriving in Paris for a brief layover between the United States and South Africa, they were standing at the foot of the Eiffel Tower, checking out the menu at the Jules Verne Restaurant: sea bass, $78; filet of beef, $77; lobster, $106; dessert, $25."

"'Everything I see here is expensive, even the train in from the airport was expensive,, said Allan Britton."

"The tanking dollar, which recently hit a 20-month low against the euro and a 14-year low against the British pound, has Americans who live or travel in Europe gulping harder, digging deeper and shelling out painful amounts of money. The $9 soda, the $5 espresso and the $30 taxi ride are commonplace. Dinner for four at a pizza joint for $100 is starting to leave a bad taste in Yankee mouths."

"'The poor dollar,' moaned George Bernauer, a retired school teacher from the Boston area and regular visitor to Europe, as he headed into the Louvre museum. 'Five euros' that would be $6.65, 'for a can of Coke; it's outrageous.'"

"The greenback is taking one of its worst beatings ever in Europe, with high U.S. trade and budget deficits, low personal savings, the burst of the U.S. housing bubble and threats of a recession driving down the value of the dollar overseas, particularly in Europe, where economic growth is picking up."

"On Friday, it took $1.32 to buy one euro, a fall in value of about 13 percent on the year and approaching the record of $1.36 in December 2004."

"'Our bank is bearish about the currency. In our latest report, we expect the dollar will be at $1.40 against the euro at the end of the first quarter next year,' said Philippe d'Arvisenet, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Paris."

"Others are much more pessimistic, d'Arvisenet said, with some warning that the dollar's value against the euro could fall as far as $1.90 if Asian governments and developing countries get spooked by continuing declines and decide to sell off their huge dollar reserves."

"'If they abandon the dollar, it could cause a global recession, and the dollar could go through the floor,' d'Arvisenet said. 'It would be counterproductive for everyone. So we rule this out. But maybe we're wrong.'"

"The dollar is doing even worse against the pound, down about 15 percent this year. On Friday, it took $1.95 to buy one pound, a 14-year-low that approached the psychological 2-to-1 exchange rate barrier."

For practical purposes, that rate is already here, said Krystal Dunn, an economics student from Battle Creek, Mich., who is studying for the year at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. 'Every time I go to the grocery store, I simply multiply by two,' said Dunn. She recently wanted to buy a paperback book and was astounded at the price: 13 pounds, or about $25.60."

"Others are much more pessimistic, d'Arvisenet said, with some warning that the dollar's value against the euro could fall as far as $1.90"

That isn't pessimistic. $2 is a definite possibility, and IMO the USD is going much lower. TPTB don't want to protect USD; they want it weaker. They won't realize how low it goes until the situation is beyond any hope of saving. This is just the beginning of the fall of the dollar.
Gofast, I think you may be right..No one knows how far it could go,but absoltely believe it will. Therefore I only believe Pm's will go higher,and thus am using my delining dollars to load up on every dip. I got a feeling we be seeing 2-fer prices on Gold very soon.
The biggest question goes to "competitive devaluation". How far will foreign CBs go to protect their exports???
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