Thursday, October 26, 2006


US Dollar In 'Losing Streak'

Bloomberg reports on the US dollar. "The dollar fell against the euro for a third consecutive day, its longest losing streak in more than a month, and weakened versus the yen after a report showed the U.S. median price for new homes declined the most since 1970."

"The U.S. currency also weakened against the South African rand, South Korean won and Swiss franc as further evidence of a cooling housing market supported the Federal Reserve's decision yesterday to keep borrowing costs unchanged."

"'This will keep the Fed worried about the economic growth going into the fourth quarter,' said Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets LLC in New York. 'U.S. consumers living freely on paper wealth of their homes will have less to spend for the Christmas season. This is a bearish picture for the dollar.'"

"'The dollar bulls have given up for the time being,' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York. 'They were hanging their hat on the FOMC statement. It didn't come through.'"

"Gold gained for the third straight day in New York as a decline in the value of the dollar against the euro boosted the metal's appeal as an alternative investment. Gold futures for December delivery rose $9, or 1.5 percent, to $599.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price in a week. Futures climbed 1.4 percent in the previous two sessions."

"'The overall consensus is that the dollar is going to weaken this year,' said Matt McKinney, a commodity broker at Infinity Brokerage Services in Chicago. 'Most of my clients have unloaded the short positions in gold,' he said."

"'It took 5 months for the market to correct,' said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. 'I believe this correction is over and the next big leg up has begun.' It's possible that December gold will trade near the $650 level before the end of the year, he said, and likely reach new high sin 2007."

"'A steadier oil price, a retreating U.S. dollar and Iran/Iraq geopolitical concerns moving back towards the front page' -- all 'are allowing gold to once again test key resistance between $600 [and] $610,' said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. 'It appears only a question of when, not if, it breaks out to the upside.'"

"December silver futures closed up 35 cents, or 2.9%, at $12.24 an ounce, January platinum added $14.30, or 1.3%, to close at $1,083.30 an ounce and December palladium rose $3.40 to end at $326.50 an ounce."

Looks like more of the same old same old: A series of deceased feline bounces on the way down to something in the 4's.
Yesterday on NPR's "Morning Edition" business news, there was first a story about the Fed meeting, and then a story about OPEC production and how oil stockpiles impair the cartel's ability to control the price of oil. Seems like someone smarter or better informed than I should send in a letter about how huge foreign holdings of U.S. debt impair the Fed's (or U.S. government's) ability to control the value of the dollar.
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