Friday, September 01, 2006


Markets Quiet Ahead Of Holiday Weekend

The Daily FX has this on the US dollar. "Despite an extremely busy data week, theUS dollar did not budge one iota from its 1.2750 to 1.2925 trading range against the Euro. In fact, even the combination of non-farm payrolls and ISM on the same day failed to result in any meaningful price action for the US dollar."

"Looking beyond the headlines, we see signs of easing growth and inflation. Average hourly earnings rose a meager 0.1 percent while average weekly hours contracted from 33.9 to 33.8. The manufacturing sector also continued to lose jobs which confirm the recent deterioration in the sector."

"Later in the morning, the US dollar lost all of its earlier gains after a sharp drop in construction spending and pending homes sales. The drop in construction spending in the month of July was the biggest in five years. There is no doubt that the housing market is slowing, which is one the Federal Reserve’s major concerns."

"In addition, even though the ISM manufacturing index only moderated slightly, the prices paid component experienced the biggest drop since the beginning of the year confirming other indications of easing inflationary pressures. On balance, today’s reports do little to shift the Fed's game plan to continue pausing."

"Fed fund futures are pricing in a less than 20 percent chance of another rate hike this year. Nothing in the reports had what it takes to push us out of the 1.2750-1.2925 trading range that we have been trapped in since the beginning of the month. Looking at next week’s calendar, aside from non-manufacturing ISM and the Beige Book report, there is little US data."

From MarketWatch. "Gold futures fell Friday but finished nearly $2-an-ounce above the level they closed at a week ago as traders mulled news of moderate job growth in August and moves in the U.S. dollar, wary of potential developments related to Iran's nuclear program and the U.N.'s efforts to suspend it."

"Gold for December delivery fell $1.60 to close at $632.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed a week ago at $630.80, so it was up $1.80, or 0.3%, for the week. December silver rose by 4 cents to close at a three-month high of $13.07 an ounce. It gained 4.2% for the week."

"October platinum closed down $3.60 at $1,254.80 an ounce, but it was up 1.8% for the week. December palladium added 90 cents to close at $349.60 an ounce, though it was down 0.7% from last Friday's closing level."

"'The release of the jobs numbers immediately fueled speculation that perhaps the Fed might resume its rate hikes in late September,' said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at"

"'The increasing pace of mega-mergers in the gold industry reveals a sector that is really only able to 'find' more gold on the books of competing firms, but not that much in the ground anymore,' said Nadler. 'Statements such as the ones from the head of Goldcorp yesterday, about the prospects for $200 higher bullion prices within the next couple of years, are resonating well with the safe-haven buyers, who are already predisposed to accumulate the metal on rising global angst,' he said."

From Reuters. "Teen-oriented retailers reported sharply higher sales in August as kids flocked to malls ahead of the new school year, but chains targeting adults fared worse, as a slowing housing market and higher energy prices crimped spending."

"'We expect to see a continued slowing in the growth of same-store sales numbers,' said Ken Perkins, president of independent research firm Retail Metrics. 'The housing market, gas prices, heating oil, political instability; these are our biggest concerns. We're not falling off the cliff yet, but if housing prices and the job market go south, look out.'"

$15 jump today... any news?
" NY gold, silver surge on reopen from holiday

September 05, 2006 09:23:38 (ET)

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Precious metals rose sharply early Tuesday in New York as traders returned from the last long weekend of the summer in a buying mood, shrugging off weaker crude oil prices and a mixed dollar.

Though floor traders were still trying to get their bearings after Monday's U.S. Labor Day holiday, there was some speculation that metals were benefiting as investors grew more sour on crude oil after recent declines in the price.

"I'm thinking there is some money coming out of the energies and coming into metals," said a floor broker. "We saw some fund buying earlier last week. We continue to see a little bit of buying here this morning."

Silver took a leading role overnight, but gold sprinted ahead at the open on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December gold ((GCZ6)) at 9:38 a.m. EDT (1338 GMT), was up $12.10, or 1.9 percent, at $644.70 an ounce, trading to a 25-day high at $646.50 from $631.60, the bottom overnight.

Another broker said the floor considered $649 an ounce the next resistance point for the benchmark contract.

Spot gold ((XAU=)) fetched $636.00/80, up from $624.85/625.85 an ounce when trading wrapped up Friday afternoon. Tuesday's morning fix in London was $629.75.

"It is quite a sharp jump when you consider oil is well entrenched below $70 and the U.S. dollar at $1.28 against euro is relatively strong," said Bernard Hunter, a director of precious metals trading at ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "Gold's reaction is probably breaking away from those traditional indicators." "
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