Wednesday, August 02, 2006


Gold Follows Oil Higher

Bloomberg has the trading numbers for gold. "Gold rose to a two-week high in New York as higher energy costs boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation."

"Gold and crude oil have moved mostly in lockstep this year. Natural-gas prices jumped as much as 12 percent, and oil climbed above $75 a barrel on concern a strengthening tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean may disrupt production in the U.S. Gulf. Tropical Storm Chris may become the year's first Atlantic hurricane late today or early tomorrow."

"Gold futures for December delivery rose $7.70, or 1.2 percent, to $666.50 an ounce at 9:22 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier reached $666.80, the highest since July 17."

"'The focus is on the energies,' said Matt McKinney, a broker at Infinity Brokerage Services in Chicago. 'Fundamentally, we're going to see higher gold prices as long as energies continue to go up and there are fears of inflation.'"

"Tom O'Brien, editor of the Gold Report, pointed to Tuesday's breakdown in the U.S. dollar index as key to watch near term for the precious metals markets. 'On a technical basis, the dollar index broke a channel line that will being the dollar back to the lows around 83.00,' he said."

"Looking ahead, O'Brien expects additional deterioration in the U.S. dollar index to continue to support the precious metals complex. He pointed to the July 17 peak at $691.20 as his near term target for Dec gold. In silver, he added, 'it looks like we are going to get into the $12.60 area.'"

"September silver was at $12.245, up $0.505; Range: $12.290-11.760. October platinum was at $1260.60; up $2.10; Range: $1267.50-1258.20. September palladium was at $328.95, up $7.00; Range: $329.00-323.50.'

I am shocked to see the stock market, oil, and gold all up. Oh yes, bond yields are down too. Apparently people are betting on the USD, and think that a slowing economy is somehow good for stocks? Such irrationality cannot last. They are throwing money at everything. IMO this is the last gasp of the bear market summer rally. Oil and gold are about to diverge from stocks and the USD.

I don't disagree... but the Fed is the 800lb gorilla in the room. As someone who began screaming about the housing bubble far too soon, I'm a little more hesitant to say 'when' divergence will occur. But occur it will.
"Oil and gold are about to diverge from stocks and the USD."
....when?, that is the $64k question. I keep reading the message boards on InvestorVillage ,yahoo etc on PM's ,and most say they are holding for the long term as they see some minor flux,but they are talking increased buying going foward now.....

Posted on other thread about someone taking posession of 4.2M .ozs' maybe jewelers or ?...anyway it would be interesting if the trend continued...neg. net.
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