Friday, August 18, 2006

 

Gold 'Battered By Relentless Selling'

MarketWatch has the metals numbers. "Gold futures fell Friday to tally a decline of nearly $23 an ounce for the week as easing Middle East tensions and inflation concerns tamped down demand for the metal as a safe-haven investment and inflation hedge."

"'Battered by relentless waves of selling, gold bullion came to within 1% of touching the $600 mark on Friday,' said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com."

"Gold for December delivery closed at $621.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $3.60 for the session and at its worst closing level since late June. Prices finished $22.70, or 3.5%, below the week-ago close of $644.40."

"'Gold fell in concert with the clouds of war lifting over the Middle East, and with the price of crude oil coming down to earthly levels once again,' said Nadler. September crude futures climbed Friday, but were lower for the week."

"From here, prices may test the 'psychological $600 level is likely but strong interest from bargain hunters and physical players is expected, and will be a good area for investors to enter the market,' said James Moore. Gold, he said in a note to clients, 'remains on course to finish the year above $700.'"

"Peter Grandich agreed. 'Gold continues to build a strong base above the psychological $600 level that should allow for a test of the yearly highs around $735 before year-end,' he said. 'A new all-time above remains only a question of when, not if, as the U.S dollar eventually makes new lows below 80 basis the U.S. Dollar Index.'"

"For now, however, news of an interest-rate hike in China, as Beijing continues to try to rein in surging investment and loan growth, put pressure on gold. The People's Bank of China raised its one-year lending rate to 6.12% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.52%, pushing both rates up by 0.27%."

"September silver closed up 3.5 cents at $12.03 an ounce, up 1.2% from last week's close of $11.885. October platinum fell $9.70 to $1,223.60 an ounce, down 2.5% from the week-ago close, while September palladium lost $2.85 to end at $333 an ounce, closing up $10.70 from last Friday."

Comments:
The gold picture is getting interesting. We should get a better idea of the markets' floor in conditions like these. Plenty of folks are looking for an entry point, and we may have one sooner than later.
 
Actually, it's amazing how much strength gold has shown, given all the forces arrayed against it.

My own predictions of rising prices after a Fed pause were admittedly shortsighted, given that TPTB desperately want to hide the inflation monster from the public. Interesting times!
 
Is it reasonable to think that some of this dip in gold is due to liquidations need to cover other losses?
 
EE,
It could be. However, I think in the future the price of PMs will be effected by people taking savings and buying PMs to store what they have. Of course, depending on when you buy/at what price, it may not be a very good store of value depending on what the end result of the crisis will be.

People selling gold to pay other bills sounds pretty strange from my perspective, but I bought with savings. I am sure gold is bought on credit, but I don't know how much of that is done by individual citizens.

By the end state, I mean what happens to fiat currencies. Do they end up going back to being backed by gold? Based on the amount of US$ in circulation and ounces of gold held by the US, an ounce comes out to an unbelievable number (just taking roughly 8K tons and relating it to our debt of roughly 9 million comes out to roughly 13K/ounce). However, alot of those paper promises will vanish, so how much will gold be worth, in relation to what currency? Your guess is as good as mine. Depends how many of those paper promises will be floating around I suppose. I do think, however, that gold's purchasing power in that end state will beat anything else you could use to store your wealth.
 
I am impressed that gold is holding over $600. I think a lot of buy orders are lined up right under that number, but we may not get there.
 
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