Friday, March 03, 2006

 

Traders Look For $12 Silver

Market Watch has the end of the week numbers. "Silver futures closed at a fresh 22-year high Friday, up more than 4% for the week with the gains tied to expectations that an exchange-traded fund based on the metal will soon be launched. 'Conditions are set to remain volatile in silver for some time to come as traders await the SEC's decision on Barclay's ETF application,' said James Moore, an analyst in London."

"But'a positive outcome and subsequent launch is likely to generate plenty of upside with $12.50 remaining my price target,' he said. Lance Berg, a spokesman for Barclays Global Investors, said Friday he was unable to comment on the iShares Silver Trust, which is still subject to an SEC-imposed quiet period."

"Analysts said silver's rise may reflect buying on speculation the silver ETF would soon get the green light. Gold experienced a similar pop in the weeks leading up to the launch of StreetTracks Gold Trust 'The 130 million ounces of silver needed for the launch of securitized silver are not going to be easy to come by, nor will they leave much available for investors who have been just starting to chase after the white metal as soon as gold reached new highs,' according to Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com."

"Meanwhile, gold for April delivery climbed as high as $571 an ounce, the highest Nymex level since Feb. 6, but the contract closed down $2.40 at $568. It's up 1.2% for the week, however, after closing last week at $561.20. 'Gold should find temporary resistance around $572 but a re-test of January's $575 high now appears imminent with resistance above now expected at $578/$582,' said Moore."

"Elsewhere in the metals sector, April platinum rose $7.70 to close at $1,062.50 an ounce, with platinum contracts finishing the week up 2.6%. The June palladium contract rose $5.45 an ounce to end at $308.45 an ounce, up almost $16 from the week-ago close."

"Key indexes that track the metals-mining sector closed lower Friday to mark losses for week, despite Thursday's gains of around 3%."

And Mineweb had this to report. "South Africa’s gold production in 2005, was its lowest since 1923, at 296.3 tons, according to a statement from South Africa’s Chamber of Mines released on Friday. The experts, after a strong rand forced restructuring and closure of a number of gold mines expected a figure near the 300-ton mark. In the fourth quarter of the year 74.1 tons were produced."

"'The good news was that on a quarter-on-quarter basis the December quarter’s gold production increased by 2.4% as the better economic environment and less work place disruptions enabled mining companies to increase output,' said the Chamber in the statement. The Chamber says that the higher average production cost of R89,130/kg compared to R85,200/kg in 2004, was reflective of the large restructuring costs that the industry had to make to right size various operations."

"Harmony Gold, the third largest producer of South African gold, fired as many as 13,000 workers in its restructuring exercise that began in April 2004."

Comments:
If you have a weekend topic suggestion, please post it here.
 
1) Predictions!!! Especially post-ETF silver.

2) IAB impact on currencies.

3) Long bonds are finally moving.

4) JPY interest rates, yen carry trade, etc.

5) Ramifications of Dubai port issue.
 
in the near future I think silver is going to pop with this new ETF.
 
Yeah, that $12.50 target might be conservative considering there will be a frenzy. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that the day before SLV was launched.

There are a few items completely gone from APMEX's site. Cull silver coins, sterling silver, and they recently had a 90% silver coin sale for 0.10 less than spot. I think it only lasted a few hours before it was all gone. Their stock does fluctuate and some people have offloaded their collections. Check under 'wholesale lots' to see what I mean. It just seems the fluctuation is more so now.

I was surprised with the silver sterling they gave me. All but one piece was plated with 24k gold. That's pretty cool.
 
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