Saturday, March 04, 2006

 

Have a Money And Metals Prediction?

A reader wants to hear your predictions. "1) Predictions!!! Especially post-ETF silver.

2) IAB impact on currencies.

3) Long bonds are finally moving.

4) JPY interest rates, yen carry trade, etc.

5) Ramifications of Dubai port issue."

Another added, "Yeah, that $12.50 target might be conservative considering there will be a frenzy. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that the day before SLV was launched."

"There are a few items completely gone from APMEX's site. Cull silver coins, sterling silver, and they recently had a 90% silver coin sale for 0.10 less than spot. I think it only lasted a few hours before it was all gone. Their stock does fluctuate and some people have offloaded their collections. Check under 'wholesale lots' to see what I mean. It just seems the fluctuation is more so now."

"I was surprised with the silver sterling they gave me. All but one piece was plated with 24k gold. That's pretty cool."

Comments:
Based only on conjecture, I predict that the SLV ETF will create more of a "spike" than is expected - possibly $20-30 in the short term.
 
I second that spike!
 
A spike that high too quickly would get me worried about speculative froth. I would get nervous and consider cashing in on partial inventory to cover part of initial investment.

$12 silver makes sense right before the SLV ETF. The SLV opening week could pop silver to $15. From there I would hope for steady growth. If silver went above $20 before August, I'd be antsy.
 
"A spike that high too quickly would get me worried about speculative froth."

That's a nice way to put it. Can't you spare a little irrational exuberance? :) I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if it got to those prices and would begin moving portions back into Gold or other commodities.

I also have a hunch that this move may get public attention more than Gold has thus far.. bring out the coin silver, mom!
 
Hi. I am a complete novice, but I was doing some preliminary research and wondering why Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp did not shoot up in value on Friday like the other silver mining stocks did.
 
If i can K.I.S.S. :

2) The silver ETF will happen at the same time the Yen carry trade collapse becomes more evident (after the fact) so that flex in currencies can be blamed on silver ETF, et al - when we know the mopping up of liquidity by the BOJ will dry up any remaining enthusiasim for fiat currency worldwide, in so far as any kind of carry trade is concerned. Who buys then? CB. PPT.

3) Long-bonds are last Julys ocean lake view real estate, available for the truely rich (in the long term).

1) In an ordinary neighborhood - four get together, want to open neighborhood silver exchange.
With buckets they meet - the four.
No trade, just dump out in pile on back porch and look.
Next week is higher price -still just dump, look and not much trade.
To raise price, to stimulate trade, to get excitement, get a fifth neighbor to trade.
Fifth neighbor brings dumptruck full - not buckets full.
Fifth neighbor dumps load of silver on back porch, on TOP OF the other four neighbors poured out buckets of silver.
Third neighbor gets tried, wants to go home.
Third neighbors bucket is under dumptruck load - nothings moving enough.
To help out, fifth neighbor lowers his price and invites other blocks of neighbors to buy dumptruck load of silver at less than bucketload price.
Most of the rest of the neighborhood are not thrilled or excited at what is going on and avoid the firesale or throw eggs.
Bucketloads are STILL burried under dumptruckload.
To be able to go home, Third neighbor says, "I will take less per bucketload".
Fifth neighbor - owner of dumptruck load says, "I'll help you out and give you my silver at the top of the pile so you can go home NOW, at less than bucketload price, but at a price twice more than the equal amount of dumptruckload silver.
Third neighbor goes home happy enough, unknowingly setting new lower price for bucketload holders, and higher price for dumptruckload holders.
Its getting late and wives are screaming at remaining bucketload owners to get home.
Dumptruckload owner is single.
Tick-tock.

... all that cannot pan out if, without telling anyone, Warren Buffet (is there anyone else who ownes 130 million OZ of silver?) made a deal in 1998 wherein the neighbors set 2x6's across the back of the fully loaded dumptruck in the begining and poured their buckets on top of the dumptruckload. In that case, the top price is right now - 'er yesterday. Any other price increases are inflationary.

5) If it fails, Mideast wont buy US-T in place of asia. The Dubai port issue IS the supersped-up asiafication of the Mideast.

The "public" knows about silver now, the price is on the news every day. But (see #2) the "public" does not have the cash, the credit and the faith required to purchase. Same for gold.

AMHOO.
 
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