Thursday, February 02, 2006

 

Metals Move To New Highs On Japanese Interest

MarketWatch reports on the trading action for precious metals. "Physical and investment demand drove gold futures to almost $577 an ounce at the close Thursday, a new 25-year high as analysts continued to tout the likelihood for even higher prices. The per-ounce target levels of $600 gold and $10 silver are 'only a question of when not if,' said Peter Grandich. Even so, he says 'a serious correction can occur once the excitement of reaching these levels is exhausted.'"

"Gold for April delivery climbed as high as $579.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before easing back a bit to close at $576.80, up $2.80. March silver tacked on 8.2 cents to close at $9.877 an ounce after climbing as high as $9.915 an ounce. April platinum climbed, adding $9.20 to close at $1,089.30 an ounce. It tapped a high of $1,091, a record on Nymex for front-month contract."

"Sister metal palladium saw its March contract finished up $12.90 at $309.50 an ounce, ending at its highest level since April 2004."

"'The unfolding petro-nuclear Iran debacle laced with faith-based overtones is making the average investor quite nervous these days,' said Jon Nadler, at bullion dealers Kitco.com. 'A host of bullish factors (Iran, Hamas, oil, inflation, deficits, domestic spying, etc.) is being laid, news item by news item, on top of the basic low output/high demand picture of gold,' he said."

From the Business Times. "Cash-rich Japanese retail investors have been piling up buy positions in the Tokyo gold futures market as the metal's bullish fundamentals and renewed weakness in the yen have drawn fresh interest. Open interest in Tokyo Commodity Exchange gold futures has jumped about 17 per cent in the past month after declining more than 40 per cent over a four-day period in mid-December, indicating more liquidity in the market."

The Financial Times reports on what may be the cause. "All eyes may have been on European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday, but it was another central banker who stamped his mark on the currency market. However, Toshiro Muto, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, sent the yen tumbling, despite not radically changing his view. Mr Muto said conditions were not right to end Japan’s policy of quantitative monetary easing, in which liquidity is pumped into the banking system, despite optimism that deflation was finally being defeated."

"'Mr Muto’s comments underlined the desire of certain policy board members to take a cautious stance on shifting policy,' said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. 'The prospect of continued zero interest rates is likely to continue to undermine the yen.'"

"Against this backdrop, the yen fell 0.2 per cent to Y118.25 against the dollar, 0.5 per cent to Y143.08 against the euro, 0.5 per cent to Y210.63 against sterling and 0.5 per cent to Y89.30 against the Australian dollar, all seven-week lows. BNP Paribas saw scope for the yen to fall as low as Y121 to the greenback. Steven Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS, saw signs of rising inflation expectations, with the BoJ likely to fall behind the curve. In this environment he saw Japanese retail investors continuing to buy gold, selling yen in the process."

Comments:
"The per-ounce target levels of $600 gold and $10 silver are 'only a question of when not if,' said Peter Grandich. Even so, he says 'a serious correction can occur once the excitement of reaching these levels is exhausted."

We are due for a pull back IMO.(long term it's up,up,up) Other world wide concerns(pressures)have kept the prices on the upswing... O.T. Any new, news on the Silver ETF? I have not found any.
 
Let's see that correction! I'm waiting to pounce again...
 
Let's see that correction! I'm waiting to pounce again...
# posted by TJ & The Bear : 12:42 PM

You and me both!! Now that Silver is closing in on $10 I remember buying at $4 thinking I know, long term it's going up, but??? Now, all the but's have left the room...
 
OT

Yield Curve

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates

ACK
 
I know the Silver ETF has reached the 21 day comment period so it should interesting as we het closer..Silver almost hit $10 today ! Never mind as the word get out...Bought my first silver stocks ever ,and made $57 ! Woo Hoo...It was fun...
Anyway , here's a couple Yahoo! sites that have some interesting message boards on the metals...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/134.html

,and the list total list
http://tinyurl.com/669jm
 
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
 
This article quotes gold futures. NY spot is currently $571.80. I put a stop limit out for tommorow if it dips at all I'm selling 50% of my postion. I too think we're due for a correction down to $500-$550, time to take some profits and (hopefully) enter back in at a lower price.

BTW - I posted on here a few days ago the price descrepency between the ETF GLD and the gold spot mark. From what I can tell, the intra-day is driven by the market maker, then the next day the fund must come in and buy or sell to adjust the price back to 1/10th oz. Gold was down yesterday but GLD was up... maybe I should just read the prospectus.
 
I learned by lesson at $535 and will not sell no matter what! I've gotten screwed too many times trying to sell and get in on a dip, so will you.
No one friggin knows where this is going. It would only take a firecracker at the Superbowl to gap over $700 on Monday.
 
very good article on the metals.

Some Markets Even More Overbought Than Precious Metals
 
Treasury is overdrawn!

The U.S. Treasury Department announced the national debt on January 31st, 2006 as:

$8,196,070,437,599.52

This is $12 billion over the statutory debt limit and it's possible someone among the news media will soon notice this and make some inquiries. Don't hold your breath, however. Media are busy with major stories, such as how many awards "Brokeback Mountain" will collect. The nation being broke is not as interesting.
 
Interesting piece... I had no idea that we had a population growth of 380 million between 2000&2005 world wide!

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=51052
 
This article quotes gold futures. NY spot is currently $571.80. I put a stop limit out for tommorow if it dips at all I'm selling 50% of my postion. I too think we're due for a correction down to $500-$550, time to take some profits and (hopefully) enter back in at a lower price.

It could pull back at any time because the price is being driven by investors (speculators). But the current price move is very strong. We keep hitting new highs every few days, and every time we do the news goes out and entices more investment, driving the price further up. We are in a nice positive feedback cycle right now. I am not selling until I see some sort of weakness.

If Iran starts full enrichment over the weekend then we could see a good pop up on Monday.
 
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