Monday, February 20, 2006
Gold Pushes Higher On Heavy Speculation
Reuters has the latest on metals. "Gold prices moved to 10-day highs on Monday supported by a rise in crude oil and a drop in the dollar, and dealers said the metal was expected to extend gains. Other precious metals followed gold higher after tumbling in the previous week, with platinum rising nearly two percent and silver climbing to its highest in more than a week."
"Gold rose as high as $556.60 an ounce before easing to $554.50 at the afternoon fixing, compared with $551.70/552.60 in New York on Friday. Traders said physical demand was slow, while there was also little investment interest, as the New York futures market is closed on Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday."
"'Obviously, the New York holiday is leaving market conditions quite thin and the trade is looking at the background noise such as the dollar and oil prices,' said James Moore."
"Spot silver was quoted at $9.49/9.52, compared with $9.42/9.45 in New York on Friday. Palladium was up at $288/292 from $285/289."
And Bloomberg had this. "Investors have tripled their holdings in five gold-backed exchange-traded funds, including the U.S. traded StreetTracks Gold Trust, to 429 metric tons since November, according to London-based ETF Securities Ltd."
"Speculators almost doubled their holdings in gold futures since August, reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Hedge funds and other large speculators held net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, totaling 118,914 Comex gold contracts as of Feb. 14, up from 65,569 on Aug. 2, data from the commission showed on Feb. 17. Speculators amassed 177,410 contracts on Oct. 11, the most since at least February 1983."
"Gold rose as high as $556.60 an ounce before easing to $554.50 at the afternoon fixing, compared with $551.70/552.60 in New York on Friday. Traders said physical demand was slow, while there was also little investment interest, as the New York futures market is closed on Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday."
"'Obviously, the New York holiday is leaving market conditions quite thin and the trade is looking at the background noise such as the dollar and oil prices,' said James Moore."
"Spot silver was quoted at $9.49/9.52, compared with $9.42/9.45 in New York on Friday. Palladium was up at $288/292 from $285/289."
And Bloomberg had this. "Investors have tripled their holdings in five gold-backed exchange-traded funds, including the U.S. traded StreetTracks Gold Trust, to 429 metric tons since November, according to London-based ETF Securities Ltd."
"Speculators almost doubled their holdings in gold futures since August, reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Hedge funds and other large speculators held net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, totaling 118,914 Comex gold contracts as of Feb. 14, up from 65,569 on Aug. 2, data from the commission showed on Feb. 17. Speculators amassed 177,410 contracts on Oct. 11, the most since at least February 1983."
# posted by Ben Jones @ 12:51 PM 
Comments:
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Fleckenstein:
In the meantime, I anticipate a bullish chain of events for the metals: When the "right" data emerge to support the fact that the economy is weaker than it appears, I believe the Fed will make clear that it's closer to pausing than people think. (Bernanke himself told Congress last Wednesday that whatever the Fed does will be "dependent on the data.") If that turns out to be the case, I think there will an explosion in the precious metals and currencies, an outcome that I intend to capture.
In the meantime, I anticipate a bullish chain of events for the metals: When the "right" data emerge to support the fact that the economy is weaker than it appears, I believe the Fed will make clear that it's closer to pausing than people think. (Bernanke himself told Congress last Wednesday that whatever the Fed does will be "dependent on the data.") If that turns out to be the case, I think there will an explosion in the precious metals and currencies, an outcome that I intend to capture.
creamofthecr*p:
What gets me with gold is its highly speculative nature.
The problem isn't gold, it's your perspective. Gold has been a recognized store of value for thousands of years. OTOH, you admit that 100% of your holdings are in paper, which instrinsically is worth absolutely nothing. Who's really speculating??
What gets me with gold is its highly speculative nature.
The problem isn't gold, it's your perspective. Gold has been a recognized store of value for thousands of years. OTOH, you admit that 100% of your holdings are in paper, which instrinsically is worth absolutely nothing. Who's really speculating??
When oil was forced to be traded with only petrodollars, the dollar was backed, in a sense, with oil (the black gold). As that changes, USD will not have the strength that it once did. It should take more USD to buy an ounce of gold if/when that weakness comes.
Hi all,
If you are interested in gold
I would like to invite you to visit my web log
The web log contains daily commentary, news and charts regarding the global gold and silver market.
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If you are interested in gold
I would like to invite you to visit my web log
The web log contains daily commentary, news and charts regarding the global gold and silver market.
Gold global perspective
creamofthecr*p:
If, on the other hand, you consider it very likely that our financial systems will remain intact...
Ah, there's the rub. Pick up "Empire of Debt". It's a very entertaining read that'll scare the hell out of you. Otherwise, nice post!
Stick around. HB2 was just like this in the early days. The crowd over there just hasn't realized that this is the new frontier, blog-wise!
If, on the other hand, you consider it very likely that our financial systems will remain intact...
Ah, there's the rub. Pick up "Empire of Debt". It's a very entertaining read that'll scare the hell out of you. Otherwise, nice post!
Stick around. HB2 was just like this in the early days. The crowd over there just hasn't realized that this is the new frontier, blog-wise!
Cream of the crap said:"I am curious to know what percentage of physical gold folks out there are comfortable with... as opposed to GLD or mining equities".
I hold about 15% silver eagle coins and the rest of my gold portfolio is invested in gold and silver mining stocks. I know alot of posters here hold physical gold, which is good for emergencies in case things get really bad, but I like the convenience of selling gold stocks without having to find a dealer to pay me the best price when its time to sell. I am not as sophisticated as most here for sure, but I do feel the economy is going to take a turn for the worse, none to the likes of what we have experienced before. At least in the 1970's, people had savings, but not this time around. Dont know what to expect really, but gold did well then when interest rates were skyhigh and hyperinflation quadrupled house prices. Also, my other thoughts about the future of this ecomony is wondering which banks will be left standing after everything shakes out. I checked the FDIC website, and there is no mention of when monies will be paid back in the case of bank closures. This scares me, and it seems that all banks are giving crazy loans to anyone that is breathing. Is it best to keep cash in ones house, or in a small bank?
Not to change the subject, but now that the HB2 blog format has changed, I cant post my comments anymore. Can someone please tell me how to post on this new format? I have tried, and cant get anywhere. Thanks for the assistance in advance.
I hold about 15% silver eagle coins and the rest of my gold portfolio is invested in gold and silver mining stocks. I know alot of posters here hold physical gold, which is good for emergencies in case things get really bad, but I like the convenience of selling gold stocks without having to find a dealer to pay me the best price when its time to sell. I am not as sophisticated as most here for sure, but I do feel the economy is going to take a turn for the worse, none to the likes of what we have experienced before. At least in the 1970's, people had savings, but not this time around. Dont know what to expect really, but gold did well then when interest rates were skyhigh and hyperinflation quadrupled house prices. Also, my other thoughts about the future of this ecomony is wondering which banks will be left standing after everything shakes out. I checked the FDIC website, and there is no mention of when monies will be paid back in the case of bank closures. This scares me, and it seems that all banks are giving crazy loans to anyone that is breathing. Is it best to keep cash in ones house, or in a small bank?
Not to change the subject, but now that the HB2 blog format has changed, I cant post my comments anymore. Can someone please tell me how to post on this new format? I have tried, and cant get anywhere. Thanks for the assistance in advance.
Hi Ben! You are right, I just now looked and it posted. Thanks for checking. I guess it just takes a little while.
Cream of the crap - Agree. One never knows how to really prepare ones self for a banking crisis, but at least it seems that most of us here on this blog knows there's a train wreak starting to unfold before our eyes, to prepare as best we can.
The econimist article is very good by the way, with accurate information on what is in store for us.
The econimist article is very good by the way, with accurate information on what is in store for us.
Pardon my cynicism, but I doubt the FDIC's record will be so good when 80% of it's member institutions are in crisis.
Despite all the press given lender's offloading of mortgages via MBS, most banks are highly at risk. Reserve requirements are the lowest they've been in decades, sub-prime credit exposure is way up, and real estate financing makes up a majority of bank's loan portfolio. In fact, the nationwide average exceeds that of Texas' bank's exposure to the oil industry before the '80s bust; all those banks went under.
Despite all the press given lender's offloading of mortgages via MBS, most banks are highly at risk. Reserve requirements are the lowest they've been in decades, sub-prime credit exposure is way up, and real estate financing makes up a majority of bank's loan portfolio. In fact, the nationwide average exceeds that of Texas' bank's exposure to the oil industry before the '80s bust; all those banks went under.
TJ- I would have to agree with you, most banks would be affected. Even the most conserative banks are giving crazy loans. I did find world saving has a good rate for CD's - 4.85, but thats no consolation if I can't get my money when a crisis hits.
If all/most banks will be at risk, maybe it's best to research the FDIC insurance policy. Can past history has answers to our questions about bank safety?
Personally, I don't know anyone who lost any money from any bank during the banking crisis in the 80's or 90's. I do remember some S&L's in the bayarea did close and the rest changed their names to Savings Banks.
Is there any posters here who actually did loose money throught a banking bust? Might be an interesting topic for discussion.
If all/most banks will be at risk, maybe it's best to research the FDIC insurance policy. Can past history has answers to our questions about bank safety?
Personally, I don't know anyone who lost any money from any bank during the banking crisis in the 80's or 90's. I do remember some S&L's in the bayarea did close and the rest changed their names to Savings Banks.
Is there any posters here who actually did loose money throught a banking bust? Might be an interesting topic for discussion.
It's not a matter of researching the FDIC, it's a matter of researching the banks themselves.
There are services that rank bank's risk and make recommendations. Believe it or not, there are banks that still operative very conservatively; just don't expect online banking or ATMs everywhere. I'll try to find the book(s) I have that listed them.
There are services that rank bank's risk and make recommendations. Believe it or not, there are banks that still operative very conservatively; just don't expect online banking or ATMs everywhere. I'll try to find the book(s) I have that listed them.
Mike from Chicagi said:"I think what you need, is to check out this website: www.weissratings.com
I got this from someone from HB2.
It suppose to rate banks by safety.
I am still not concern about it that much. Possibly in the future.
Inform us about your findings on this website.
I hope it will help."
Mike- I Checked this site out and it has rating information on banks, stocks, mutual funds,including insurance companies - for a price. There is a free sample of bank ratings-what's interesting is there are only small local banks on the list, not a one of the large institutions appears on the list, which leads to believe it's not very safe (to me). Makes one wonder...anyway, something to definitely research more for the future.
I got this from someone from HB2.
It suppose to rate banks by safety.
I am still not concern about it that much. Possibly in the future.
Inform us about your findings on this website.
I hope it will help."
Mike- I Checked this site out and it has rating information on banks, stocks, mutual funds,including insurance companies - for a price. There is a free sample of bank ratings-what's interesting is there are only small local banks on the list, not a one of the large institutions appears on the list, which leads to believe it's not very safe (to me). Makes one wonder...anyway, something to definitely research more for the future.
TJ said-"There are services that rank bank's risk and make recommendations. Believe it or not, there are banks that still operative very conservatively; just don't expect online banking or ATMs everywhere. I'll try to find the book(s) I have that listed them."
TJ-If you can find it that would be great, meanwhile, I will see what I can find on the net and post it to a new thread on this blog.
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TJ-If you can find it that would be great, meanwhile, I will see what I can find on the net and post it to a new thread on this blog.
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