Thursday, December 08, 2005

 

Gold Nears 1981 Levels

Market Watch has the latest on the gold bull market. "Gold futures climbed near $524 an ounce Thursday to trade at their highest level since 1981, chalking up a sixth consecutive session of gains on the heels of strong physical demand and concerns about inflation. Futures prices haven't traded at a level that high since April 1981, according to monthly charts. The contract settled at $522.70, up $4.90."

"'Momentum is definitely accelerating as February gold has now tacked on $60 in just a little over a month's time,' said Dale Doelling. 'All the markets need now is some extraordinary event to occur, like a stock market meltdown or a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, and we could see a quick $50-$100 pop in the price of gold,' he said."

"Other metals were swept up in the rally, with silver for March delivery closing up 11.30 cents to $8.99 an ounce, its highest in 18 years. January platinum rose $8.80 to $1,007 an ounce."

"The Amex Gold Bugs Index climbed as high as 265.94 points, its highest level ever. The CBOE Gold Index and the Philadelphia Exchange Gold & Silver Index were both trading at their highest levels in nearly nine years."

Comments:
The media isn't doing a very good job of covering this rally. For instance, how much has the US dollar depreciated since 1981? To get back to that level, adjusted for inflation, gold would have to go much higher.

A bull might say that reasoning means significantly higher gold prices are in the cards. Time will tell.
 
Dang, where's my correction! Can't buy on the dips if there aren't any!!!! ;-)
 
Dang, where's my correction! Can't buy on the dips if there aren't any!!!! ;-)
# posted by TJ & The Bear : 2:07 PM

That's what I've been saying. We are bound to see one but when and how much? I don't know, but time will tell.

Ben , You are correct, I get so tired of reading about highs without ever adjusting for inflation. I'm not so sure these writer/reporters really understand what inflation is...
 
Outside of a very few column inches in the business section, this story is invisible. Funny, too, considering the implications.

You know how we're always looking for the "canary in the coal mine"? Well, gold's rise can't be easily tied to anything specific. I'd consider it's rise more of a sign of macroeconomic unease, that universal ominous feeling that something very bad is coming to the world. Makes you wonder what we don't know.

Cue the "JAWS" theme...
 
I have been watching the gold prices too, and they havent really dipped, makes it hard to call when to buy.
 
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