Tuesday, March 15, 2005


UCLA Forecast: Recession

The well respected Anderson forecast doesn't see a lot of pluses for the US economy. "Leamer sees no clear stimuli on the horizon in 2005, ruling out both tax cuts (which have already occurred) and monetary stimulus (which has also occurred through low interest rates). An increase in government spending is doubtful (unless it is wartime spending), leaving only exports as a possible ray of hope."

"Leamer concludes with the assertion that a recession is in the future; he just doesn’t know when yet. He doesn’t see it in 2005, but believes it could happen in 2006."

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